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From the Notebook
Here's a recent mathematical exploration from my research notes - calculating expected value in sports betting:
Expected Value Formula:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won per Bet) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Lost per Bet)
Example Calculation:
- Odds: 2.50 (implied probability = 1/2.50 = 40%)
- Your estimated probability: 45%
- Bet amount: $100
- EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = +$12.50
This positive expected value indicates a mathematically sound bet. In upcoming articles, we'll explore how to identify such opportunities and build profitable betting strategies.